Ligue 1 predictions

3 upcoming Ligue 1 fixtures previewed below, ranked by model confidence. Each probability comes from a Dixon-Coles goals model blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices, refreshed every 20 minutes and scored publicly on the track record page once the result is in.

• Stade Rennais vs AJ Auxerre prediction: Stade Rennais to win 2-1 as model gives 66.6% chance — Ligue 1, Sun, 11 Oct 2026 15:15 UTC
• Troyes vs Marseille prediction: Marseille to win 0-2 as model gives 53.8% chance — Ligue 1, Sun, 11 Oct 2026 18:45 UTC
• Nice vs Strasbourg prediction: Nice narrow favourites at 41.7% — Ligue 1, Sun, 11 Oct 2026 13:00 UTC

How to read these Ligue 1 previews: the headline pick is the outcome with the highest probability, not a guarantee. Draws in football sit near 25-30% in most games, so a 45% favourite is still a real favourite. The most likely scoreline is the single most probable exact score and will usually be under 10% on its own.