Football markets

Correct score predictions today

The correct score is the hardest football market to call: even the single most likely scoreline usually has well under a 20% chance. Below is the most likely exact score for every football match we price over the next four days, with its probability and the runners-up.

Our record on this market: 25 correct out of 187 settled matches (13%). Every pick is published before kick-off and checked against the final score.

Strongest picks

Match	Competition	Prediction
LASK Linz v Liverpool Wed 14 Oct, 16:45 UTC	Champions League	0-1 24.7% also likely 0-0 (27.5%), 0-2 (12.6%)
Mallorca v Las Palmas Sun 11 Oct, 16:30 UTC	LaLiga 2	1-0 23.9% also likely 0-0 (24.6%), 2-0 (13.3%)
Shakhtar Donetsk v AEK Athens Wed 14 Oct, 19:00 UTC	Champions League	0-1 21.5% also likely 0-0 (40.8%), 1-0 (13.2%)
Deportes Concepcion v Unión La Calera Sun 11 Oct, 20:30 UTC	Primera Division	1-0 20% also likely 2-0 (15.9%), 0-0 (15.2%)
SC Freiburg v Schalke 04 Sun 11 Oct, 15:30 UTC	Bundesliga	1-0 19.2% also likely 0-0 (17.9%), 1-1 (12.8%)
IF Elfsborg v Halmstads BK Mon 12 Oct, 17:00 UTC	Allsvenskan	1-0 17.4% also likely 2-0 (16.6%), 0-0 (11.4%)

All Correct score predictions, next four days

Kick-off (UTC)	Match	Competition	Prediction
Sunday 11 October
01:00	Atlas v Guadalajara	Liga MX	1-2 9.6% also likely 1-1 (12.7%), 0-1 (8.5%)
01:30	Colorado Rapids v San Jose Earthquakes	MLS	2-1 8.9% also likely 1-1 (13.2%), 1-2 (7.8%)
03:10	América v Monterrey	Liga MX	2-1 9.5% also likely 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (7.9%)
05:00	JEF United Ichihara-Chiba v V-Varen Nagasaki	J1 League	1-2 9% also likely 1-1 (13.1%), 2-1 (7.6%)
06:00	Mito Hollyhock v Shimizu S-Pulse	J1 League	1-0 12.5% also likely 1-1 (15.1%), 0-0 (14.4%)
06:00	Tokyo Verdy 1969 v Sanfrecce Hiroshima	J1 League	0-2 15.8% also likely 0-1 (15.5%), 1-1 (10%)
07:00	Kawasaki Frontale v Nagoya Grampus	J1 League	2-1 9.5% also likely 1-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%)
10:15	FC Utrecht v Willem II	Eredivisie	2-0 8.8% also likely 3-0 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.5%)
10:30	Como v AS Roma	Serie A	0-1 8.9% also likely 1-1 (14.1%), 0-0 (9.2%)
10:30	Konyaspor v Istanbul Basaksehir	Super Lig	0-1 9.5% also likely 1-1 (13.7%), 1-2 (9.2%)
11:00	Southampton v Portsmouth	Championship	2-0 10.2% also likely 2-1 (9.5%), 1-1 (8.7%)
11:00	Motherwell v Celtic	Scottish Premiership	1-2 9.8% also likely 1-1 (12.3%), 0-2 (9.4%)
11:30	Hertha Berlin v SpVgg Greuther Fürth	2. Bundesliga	2-1 9.4% also likely 1-1 (8.4%), 2-0 (8.1%)
11:30	St. Pauli v Karlsruher SC	2. Bundesliga	2-1 9.9% also likely 1-1 (11.7%), 2-0 (9.7%)
11:30	VfL Bochum v Arminia Bielefeld	2. Bundesliga	2-1 9.3% also likely 1-1 (13.2%), 1-0 (8.6%)
11:30	Standard Liege v Royal Charleroi SC	Belgian Pro League	1-2 8.5% also likely 1-1 (13.9%), 0-0 (8.7%)
12:00	Elche v Celta Vigo	La Liga	1-2 9.3% also likely 1-1 (12.7%), 0-1 (7.5%)
12:00	FC Andorra v Castellón	LaLiga 2	1-2 9.6% also likely 1-1 (12%), 0-2 (7.9%)
12:00	Randers FC v Viborg FF	Danish Superliga	1-2 9.4% also likely 1-1 (13.2%), 0-1 (9%)
12:00	Silkeborg IF v AC Horsens	Danish Superliga	2-1 8.2% also likely 1-1 (9.8%), 1-2 (7.6%)
12:00	Hammarby IF v Djurgården	Allsvenskan	2-1 9.1% also likely 1-1 (13.6%), 1-0 (8.8%)
12:30	PEC Zwolle v SC Cambuur	Eredivisie	2-1 7.6% also likely 1-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.9%)
12:30	Telstar v ADO Den Haag	Eredivisie	2-0 11.4% also likely 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (11.2%)
12:30	SC Rheindorf Altach v Wolfsberger	Austrian Bundesliga	1-0 11% also likely 1-1 (14.9%), 0-0 (12.3%)
12:30	TSV Hartberg v Austria Lustenau	Austrian Bundesliga	2-1 9.5% also likely 1-1 (13.1%), 1-0 (8.9%)
12:30	Fredrikstad v Tromso	Eliteserien	1-2 8.9% also likely 1-1 (13.4%), 0-1 (8%)
13:00	Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest	Premier League	0-1 10.5% also likely 1-1 (14.1%), 0-0 (9.9%)
13:00	Lazio v Monza	Serie A	2-1 9.3% also likely 2-0 (9.1%), 1-1 (8.1%)
13:00	Lecce v Bologna	Serie A	0-1 12.8% also likely 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14.5%)
13:00	Aberdeen v St Johnstone	Scottish Premiership	1-0 10.7% also likely 1-1 (14.8%), 0-0 (11.5%)
13:00	Catanzaro v Mantova	Serie B	2-1 8.5% also likely 1-1 (11.5%), 1-2 (8.2%)
13:00	Gaziantep FK v Çorum FK	Super Lig	2-1 7% also likely 1-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8%)
13:30	FC Cologne v Borussia Mönchengladbach	Bundesliga	2-1 9% also likely 1-1 (9.4%), 2-2 (6.8%)
13:40	Al Fayha v Al Riyadh	Saudi Pro League	1-0 9.7% also likely 1-1 (13.1%), 2-1 (9.6%)
14:00	Union St.-Gilloise v OH Leuven	Belgian Pro League	2-0 16.6% also likely 3-0 (15.4%), 1-0 (11.4%)
14:00	Iraklis v Levadiakos	Greek Super League	1-0 13.2% also likely 1-1 (14.9%), 0-0 (14.6%)
14:00	Kifisia v Panetolikos	Greek Super League	1-0 10.6% also likely 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12.7%)
14:00	Brøndby IF v Lyngby Boldklub	Danish Superliga	1-0 10.5% also likely 1-1 (13%), 2-0 (9.8%)
14:15	Real Sociedad v Deportivo	La Liga	2-1 7.7% also likely 1-1 (12.8%), 1-2 (9%)
14:15	Almería v Leganés	LaLiga 2	2-0 13.8% also likely 1-0 (12.4%), 1-1 (10.2%)
14:30	Rio Ave v C.D. Nacional	Primeira Liga	1-0 8.7% also likely 1-1 (14.4%), 0-0 (9.8%)
14:30	BK Häcken v Örgryte IS	Allsvenskan	2-0 9.8% also likely 3-0 (9%), 2-1 (8.8%)
14:45	Excelsior v FC Groningen	Eredivisie	1-2 6.7% also likely 1-1 (11.6%), 2-1 (9.5%)
15:00	LASK Linz v Rapid Vienna	Austrian Bundesliga	2-1 9.3% also likely 1-1 (9.4%), 3-1 (6.8%)
15:00	Aalesund v Sarpsborg FK	Eliteserien	2-1 8.9% also likely 1-1 (12.2%), 1-2 (7.9%)
15:00	IK Start v Hamarkameratene	Eliteserien	2-1 8.8% also likely 1-1 (12.6%), 1-2 (7.9%)
15:15	Stade Rennais v AJ Auxerre	Ligue 1	2-1 9.5% also likely 1-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.2%)
15:15	Padova v Carrarese	Serie B	1-0 14.8% also likely 0-0 (15.6%), 1-1 (14.6%)
15:25	Abha v Al Faisaly	Saudi Pro League	1-0 15.4% also likely 0-0 (18.9%), 1-1 (14.7%)
15:30	Liverpool v Manchester City	Premier League	1-2 9.5% also likely 1-1 (12.5%), 0-2 (7.6%)
15:30	SC Freiburg v Schalke 04	Bundesliga	1-0 19.2% also likely 0-0 (17.9%), 1-1 (12.8%)
15:30	Everton CD v La Serena	Primera Division	2-1 9.8% also likely 1-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%)
16:00	Sassuolo v AC Milan	Serie A	1-2 9.3% also likely 1-1 (13.2%), 0-1 (8.5%)
16:00	Besiktas v Kocaelispor	Super Lig	1-0 16.5% also likely 0-0 (14.2%), 1-1 (13.1%)
16:00	Aris v Volos NFC	Greek Super League	2-0 10.9% also likely 1-1 (11.6%), 1-0 (10.2%)
16:00	FC Midtjylland v F.C. København	Danish Superliga	1-2 8.7% also likely 1-1 (12.3%), 2-1 (8%)
16:30	Real Betis v Osasuna	La Liga	2-0 12.2% also likely 1-0 (11.9%), 1-1 (11.6%)
16:30	Mallorca v Las Palmas	LaLiga 2	1-0 23.9% also likely 0-0 (24.6%), 2-0 (13.3%)
16:30	KVC Westerlo v Antwerp	Belgian Pro League	2-1 9.5% also likely 1-1 (10.1%), 2-0 (7.2%)
17:00	Benfica v Vitória de Guimaraes	Primeira Liga	2-0 12.5% also likely 3-0 (12.3%), 4-0 (9%)
17:15	KV Mechelen v Sint-Truidense	Belgian Pro League	1-2 9.9% also likely 1-1 (11.9%), 0-2 (9.2%)
17:15	Lillestrom v Molde	Eliteserien	1-2 9.5% also likely 1-1 (11.1%), 0-2 (7%)
17:30	Modena v Hellas Verona	Serie B	2-1 8.9% also likely 1-1 (12.7%), 1-2 (7.9%)
17:45	San Lorenzo v Deportivo Riestra	Liga Profesional	1-0 17.1% also likely 0-0 (34.3%), 0-1 (17.1%)
18:00	Olympiacos v Panathinaikos	Greek Super League	1-0 17.3% also likely 0-0 (24.4%), 1-1 (13.8%)
18:00	Al Shabab v Al Taawoun	Saudi Pro League	1-0 9.6% also likely 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (9.2%)
18:00	Coquimbo Unido v Colo Colo	Primera Division	1-2 9.8% also likely 1-1 (11.7%), 0-2 (8.5%)
18:45	Cagliari v Juventus	Serie A	0-1 14.9% also likely 0-0 (15.8%), 1-1 (14.6%)
18:45	Troyes v Marseille	Ligue 1	0-2 10.6% also likely 1-1 (9.9%), 1-2 (9.8%)
19:00	Racing Santander v Valencia	La Liga	2-1 7.1% also likely 1-1 (8.1%), 1-2 (7.5%)
19:00	Atlético-MG v Santos	Brasileirao	2-1 9.3% also likely 1-1 (13.2%), 1-0 (8.3%)
19:30	Arouca v Estrela	Primeira Liga	2-1 9.5% also likely 1-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.2%)
20:00	Platense v Argentinos Juniors	Liga Profesional	0-1 15.2% also likely 1-1 (13.7%), 0-0 (13.5%)
20:00	Rosario Central v Independiente Rivadavia	Liga Profesional	1-0 10.8% also likely 1-1 (14.2%), 0-0 (10.3%)
20:30	Flamengo v Fluminense	Brasileirao	2-0 10.3% also likely 1-1 (11.3%), 2-1 (10%)
20:30	Grêmio v Internacional	Brasileirao	0-1 9% also likely 1-1 (14.8%), 0-0 (11.7%)
20:30	Palmeiras v Corinthians	Brasileirao	1-0 17.1% also likely 2-0 (16%), 0-0 (11.5%)
20:30	Deportes Concepcion v Unión La Calera	Primera Division	1-0 20% also likely 2-0 (15.9%), 0-0 (15.2%)
21:05	Jaguares de Córdoba v Deportes Tolima	Primera A	0-1 12.4% also likely 1-1 (13.7%), 0-0 (10.7%)
22:15	Racing Club v Belgrano (Córdoba)	Liga Profesional	1-0 10.1% also likely 0-0 (15.5%), 1-1 (14.8%)
22:30	Bahia v Mirassol	Brasileirao	2-1 9.7% also likely 1-1 (12.8%), 1-0 (9.4%)
23:00	St. Louis CITY SC v LA Galaxy	MLS	2-1 9.7% also likely 2-0 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.3%)
23:00	Atlético de San Luis v Santos	Liga MX	2-1 9.7% also likely 1-1 (11.9%), 2-0 (8.2%)
23:00	Deportes Limache v Palestino	Primera Division	2-1 8.9% also likely 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (7.5%)
23:10	Pachuca v Necaxa	Liga MX	2-0 12.1% also likely 1-0 (10.7%), 1-1 (10.6%)
Monday 12 October
00:30	Talleres (Córdoba) v Independiente	Liga Profesional	1-0 9.6% also likely 1-1 (14.8%), 0-0 (11.6%)
01:15	Pumas UNAM v Cruz Azul	Liga MX	1-2 8.1% also likely 1-1 (11.3%), 2-1 (8.4%)
01:15	América de Cali v Independiente Medellín	Primera A	1-0 11.3% also likely 1-1 (12.3%), 2-0 (11.1%)
12:00	Real Valladolid v Albacete	LaLiga 2	1-0 11.2% also likely 1-1 (14.6%), 0-0 (11.3%)
14:15	Burgos v Granada	LaLiga 2	1-0 12.4% also likely 1-1 (12.9%), 2-0 (11.3%)
15:00	PAOK v Kalamata	Greek Super League	2-0 11% also likely 3-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (8.8%)
16:30	Atalanta v Venezia	Serie A	2-0 13.3% also likely 3-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (9.4%)
17:00	Eyupspor v Goztepe	Super Lig	1-2 9.8% also likely 1-1 (11.7%), 0-2 (8.4%)
17:00	AGF v Sønderjyske Fodbold	Danish Superliga	2-1 9.6% also likely 1-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (7.9%)
17:00	KFUM Oslo v Vålerenga	Eliteserien	1-2 7.2% also likely 1-1 (10.8%), 2-1 (9%)
17:00	IF Elfsborg v Halmstads BK	Allsvenskan	1-0 17.4% also likely 2-0 (16.6%), 0-0 (11.4%)
17:00	Malmö FF v Kalmar FF	Allsvenskan	2-0 13% also likely 1-0 (11.1%), 1-1 (9.9%)
18:45	Torino v Udinese	Serie A	2-1 8.5% also likely 1-1 (12.8%), 1-2 (8.3%)
18:45	Dijon FCO v Metz	Ligue 2	1-2 8.8% also likely 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (7.9%)
19:00	Coventry City v Newcastle United	Premier League	0-2 15.8% also likely 0-1 (14.7%), 0-3 (10.6%)
19:00	Levante v Sevilla	La Liga	1-2 7.9% also likely 1-1 (13.1%), 2-1 (8.8%)
19:00	Coritiba v Botafogo	Brasileirao	1-2 8.7% also likely 1-1 (11.6%), 2-1 (8%)
19:00	Lanús v Vélez Sarsfield	Liga Profesional	1-0 13.4% also likely 0-0 (15.3%), 1-1 (15%)
19:00	Tenerife v Girona	LaLiga 2	0-2 10.3% also likely 1-1 (12.3%), 0-1 (10.2%)
19:15	FC Famalicao v Alverca	Primeira Liga	1-0 14.3% also likely 1-1 (12.7%), 2-0 (12.5%)
20:00	Universidad de Chile v Ñublense	Primera Division	2-0 13% also likely 1-0 (11.3%), 1-1 (10.2%)
21:30	Gimnasia (Mendoza) v Newell's Old Boys	Liga Profesional	1-0 12% also likely 1-1 (14.9%), 0-0 (13%)
22:30	Chapecoense v Athletico-PR	Brasileirao	1-2 9.8% also likely 1-1 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.2%)
Tuesday 13 October
16:45	Lens v Sporting CP	Champions League	2-1 6.9% also likely 2-2 (7.2%), 1-1 (6.8%)
16:45	Sabah FK v Slavia Prague	Champions League	0-2 9.5% also likely 1-2 (8.9%), 0-3 (8.7%)
18:45	Bristol City v Blackburn Rovers	Championship	1-0 10.5% also likely 1-1 (14.3%), 0-0 (10.4%)
18:45	Burnley v Charlton Athletic	Championship	1-0 9.5% also likely 1-1 (14.6%), 0-0 (10.5%)
18:45	Cardiff City v Watford	Championship	1-0 11.7% also likely 1-1 (13.9%), 0-0 (10.4%)
18:45	Millwall v Swansea City	Championship	2-1 8.4% also likely 1-1 (13.6%), 1-2 (8.2%)
18:45	Wolverhampton Wanderers v Bolton Wanderers	Championship	3-1 7.9% also likely 2-1 (7.4%), 4-1 (6.3%)
18:45	Wrexham v West Bromwich Albion	Championship	1-0 10.9% also likely 1-1 (14.9%), 0-0 (12%)
19:00	Birmingham City v Preston North End	Championship	2-0 11.2% also likely 1-1 (12.1%), 1-0 (11.1%)
19:00	Stoke City v Middlesbrough	Championship	1-2 9.1% also likely 1-1 (12.7%), 2-1 (7.5%)
19:00	Arsenal v Lille	Champions League	3-0 12.7% also likely 2-0 (12.6%), 4-0 (9.6%)
19:00	Galatasaray v Barcelona	Champions League	1-3 8.1% also likely 1-2 (7.6%), 0-3 (6.8%)
19:00	Internazionale v Club Brugge	Champions League	2-1 8.5% also likely 1-1 (8.5%), 2-2 (7%)
19:00	Viking FK v Bayern Munich	Champions League	0-3 9.4% also likely 0-2 (8.8%), 1-3 (8.2%)
19:00	Villarreal v Napoli	Champions League	1-0 13.7% also likely 0-0 (15%), 1-1 (14.9%)
23:30	Atlético Bucaramanga v Águilas Doradas	Primera A	2-0 11.5% also likely 1-1 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.5%)
Wednesday 14 October
01:30	Millonarios v Once Caldas	Primera A	1-0 12.2% also likely 1-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (10.4%)
16:45	Feyenoord Rotterdam v Como	Champions League	0-3 11.1% also likely 0-2 (10.4%), 0-4 (8.9%)
16:45	LASK Linz v Liverpool	Champions League	0-1 24.7% also likely 0-0 (27.5%), 0-2 (12.6%)
18:45	Norwich City v Southampton	Championship	1-2 8.7% also likely 1-1 (8.7%), 2-2 (6.9%)
18:45	Portsmouth v Sheffield United	Championship	2-1 8.6% also likely 1-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (8.3%)
18:45	Queens Park Rangers v Derby County	Championship	1-0 10.4% also likely 1-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (9.4%)
19:00	Lincoln City v West Ham United	Championship	0-1 10.9% also likely 1-1 (13.1%), 0-2 (10.1%)
19:00	AS Roma v Real Madrid	Champions League	0-1 12.2% also likely 1-1 (14.9%), 0-0 (13.2%)
19:00	Aston Villa v Fenerbahce	Champions League	2-1 9.9% also likely 1-1 (10.5%), 2-0 (8.7%)
19:00	Bodo/Glimt v Borussia Dortmund	Champions League	1-3 7.1% also likely 1-2 (7.1%), 2-3 (5.9%)
19:00	Real Betis v FC Porto	Champions League	3-0 12.6% also likely 2-0 (11.8%), 4-0 (10.1%)
19:00	Shakhtar Donetsk v AEK Athens	Champions League	0-1 21.5% also likely 0-0 (40.8%), 1-0 (13.2%)
19:00	Slovan Bratislava v VfB Stuttgart	Champions League	0-3 11.1% also likely 0-2 (10.4%), 0-4 (8.9%)
21:30	Atlético Junior v Deportivo Pereira	Primera A	2-0 12.9% also likely 1-0 (10.8%), 1-1 (9.7%)
22:00	Sarmiento (Junín) v River Plate	Liga Profesional	1-2 8.6% also likely 1-1 (11.9%), 2-1 (8.1%)
23:30	CF Montréal v Atlanta United FC	MLS	2-1 8.3% also likely 1-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (8.3%)
23:30	Columbus Crew v Charlotte FC	MLS	1-2 8.7% also likely 1-1 (12.9%), 2-1 (8%)
23:30	D.C. United v Red Bull New York	MLS	1-0 10.6% also likely 1-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (9.6%)
23:30	FC Cincinnati v New England Revolution	MLS	1-2 7.8% also likely 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7.2%)
23:30	Inter Miami CF v New York City FC	MLS	2-1 9.3% also likely 1-1 (9.5%), 3-1 (6.7%)
23:30	Toronto FC v Orlando City SC	MLS	1-2 7.2% also likely 1-1 (8.3%), 2-1 (7.5%)
23:30	Independiente Santa Fe v Jaguares de Córdoba	Primera A	2-0 12.8% also likely 3-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.8%)
Thursday 15 October
00:30	Chicago Fire FC v Philadelphia Union	MLS	1-2 8.1% also likely 1-1 (8.7%), 2-2 (7.2%)
00:30	FC Dallas v Seattle Sounders FC	MLS	2-1 9.5% also likely 1-1 (12.3%), 2-0 (7.7%)
00:30	Nashville SC v Sporting Kansas City	MLS	3-0 11.6% also likely 2-0 (11.1%), 4-0 (9%)
00:30	St. Louis CITY SC v Vancouver Whitecaps	MLS	2-1 8.7% also likely 1-1 (11.1%), 1-2 (7.8%)

How these predictions are made

From each team's recent goals for and against we estimate expected goals for both sides, adjusted for home advantage. A Dixon-Coles goals model then gives a probability for every scoreline from 0-0 upward, correcting for how often low-scoring draws really happen. The score shown is the most likely one that agrees with our match-result pick, so it never contradicts the main prediction; the two other likeliest scores are listed beside it.

Questions

How accurate are correct score predictions?

Exact scores are rarely right: the most likely score in a typical match has a 10-18% chance. Use the probability as a guide to how open the game is.

Why is 1-1 or 1-0 picked so often?

Low scores are the most common results in football, so they top the list in most matches unless one side is much stronger.

Where do the probabilities come from?

A goals model built from each team's recent results gives the chance of every scoreline; we show the top three.

Other markets

BTTS predictions · Over 2.5 goals predictions · All football predictions · Full track record

Probabilities are model estimates for information only, not betting advice. 18+. Gamble responsibly.