Primeira Liga predictions
4 upcoming Primeira Liga fixtures previewed below, ranked by model confidence. Each probability comes from a Dixon-Coles goals model blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices, refreshed every 20 minutes and scored publicly on the track record page once the result is in.
- Benfica vs Vitória de Guimaraes prediction: Benfica to win 2-0 as model gives 73.4% chance — Primeira Liga, Sun, 11 Oct 2026 17:00 UTC
- FC Famalicao vs Alverca prediction: FC Famalicao to win 1-0 as model gives 47.7% chance — Primeira Liga, Mon, 12 Oct 2026 19:15 UTC
- Rio Ave vs C.D. Nacional prediction: Rio Ave to win 1-0 as model gives 39.2% chance — Primeira Liga, Sun, 11 Oct 2026 14:30 UTC
- Arouca vs Estrela prediction: Arouca to win 2-1 as model gives 39% chance — Primeira Liga, Sun, 11 Oct 2026 19:30 UTC
How to read these Primeira Liga previews: the headline pick is the outcome with the highest probability, not a guarantee. Draws in football sit near 25-30% in most games, so a 45% favourite is still a real favourite. The most likely scoreline is the single most probable exact score and will usually be under 10% on its own.