Coritiba vs Botafogo prediction: Botafogo to win 1-2 as model gives 40.1% chance
Brasileirao sees Coritiba face Botafogo at Couto Pereira. The model makes Botafogo the favourite, assigning a narrow 40.1% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Coritiba 32%, draw 27.9%, Botafogo 40.1%.
Coritiba have generated 1.26 goals per game (0.95x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 1.92 conceded per game. Botafogo average 1.29 scored (0.97x average) and are a steady defence at 1.46 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.5 for Coritiba and 1.7 for Botafogo.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 62.3%), and both teams are likely to score (65.1%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-1, 1-2, 2-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Botafogo to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 40.1% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.