Tigre vs Banfield result: 1-2 as Tigre were tipped
Prediction wrong. Final score: Tigre 1-2 Banfield. We tipped Tigre at 55.5% before kick-off, so the prediction was wrong.
Pre-match preview (as published)
Liga Profesional sees Tigre face Banfield at Monumental de Victoria (José Dellagiovanna). The model makes Tigre the favourite, assigning a slight 55.5% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Tigre 55.5%, draw 24.5%, Banfield 20%.
Tigre have generated 0.93 goals per game (0.84x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.00 conceded per game. Banfield average 1.08 scored (0.98x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.42 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.3 for Tigre and 0.9 for Banfield.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 61.6%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 44.8%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-1, 1-0, 0-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Tigre to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 55.5% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.