San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra prediction: San Lorenzo to win 1-0 as model gives 36.6% chance
Liga Profesional sees San Lorenzo face Deportivo Riestra at Estadio Pedro Bidegain. The model makes San Lorenzo the favourite, assigning a narrow 36.6% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is San Lorenzo 36.6%, draw 27.8%, Deportivo Riestra 35.6%.
San Lorenzo have generated 0.60 goals per game (0.55x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.00 conceded per game. Deportivo Riestra average 0.67 scored (0.61x average) and are a miserly defence at 0.91 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.6 for San Lorenzo and 0.6 for Deportivo Riestra.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 89.9%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 19.3%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: San Lorenzo to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 36.6% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.