Platense vs Argentinos Juniors prediction: Argentinos Juniors to win 0-1 as model gives 43.1% chance
Liga Profesional sees Platense face Argentinos Juniors at Ciudad de Vicente López. The model makes Argentinos Juniors the favourite, assigning a narrow 43.1% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Platense 32.1%, draw 24.9%, Argentinos Juniors 43.1%.
Platense have generated 0.86 goals per game (0.78x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 1.36 conceded per game. Argentinos Juniors average 1.25 scored (1.13x average) and are a miserly defence at 0.84 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.7 for Platense and 1.4 for Argentinos Juniors.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 64.5%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 40.4%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-1, with 0-1, 1-1, 0-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Argentinos Juniors to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 43.1% confidence. A 0-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.