Gimnasia (Mendoza) vs Newell's Old Boys prediction: Gimnasia (Mendoza) to win 1-0 as model gives 40.6% chance
Liga Profesional sees Gimnasia (Mendoza) face Newell's Old Boys at Estadio Víctor Antonio Legrotaglie. The model makes Gimnasia (Mendoza) the favourite, assigning a narrow 40.6% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Gimnasia (Mendoza) 40.6%, draw 27.9%, Newell's Old Boys 31.6%.
Gimnasia (Mendoza) have generated 1.14 goals per game (1.03x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.26 conceded per game. Newell's Old Boys average 0.95 scored (0.87x average) and are a steady defence at 1.03 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.2 for Gimnasia (Mendoza) and 1 for Newell's Old Boys.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 62.9%), and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (45.2%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-1, 0-0, 1-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Gimnasia (Mendoza) to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 40.6% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.