Hammarby IF vs Djurgården prediction: Hammarby IF to win 2-1 as model gives 58.6% chance
Allsvenskan sees Hammarby IF face Djurgården at Tele2 Arena. The model makes Hammarby IF the favourite, assigning a slight 58.6% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Hammarby IF 58.6%, draw 22.4%, Djurgården 19%.
Hammarby IF have generated 2.18 goals per game (1.54x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 0.88 conceded per game. Djurgården average 2.12 scored (1.50x average) and are a miserly defence at 0.87 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.5 for Hammarby IF and 1.2 for Djurgården.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both teams are likely to score (55.3%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 1-1, 2-1, 1-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Hammarby IF to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 58.6% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.