AIK vs IFK Göteborg prediction: AIK to win 2-1 as model gives 37.5% chance
Allsvenskan sees AIK face IFK Göteborg at Friends Arena. The model makes AIK the favourite, assigning a narrow 37.5% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is AIK 37.5%, draw 27.7%, IFK Göteborg 34.8%.
AIK have generated 1.66 goals per game (1.16x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 1.85 conceded per game. IFK Göteborg average 1.46 scored (1.02x average) and are a steady defence at 1.49 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.9 for AIK and 1.7 for IFK Göteborg.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 70.2%), and both teams are likely to score (70.9%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 1-1, 2-1, 1-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: AIK to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 37.5% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.