Lillestrom vs Molde prediction: Molde to win 1-2 as model gives 51.2% chance
Eliteserien sees Lillestrom face Molde at Arasen Stadion. The model makes Molde the favourite, assigning a slight 51.2% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Lillestrom 21.7%, draw 27.1%, Molde 51.2%.
Lillestrom have generated 1.23 goals per game (0.76x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.57 conceded per game. Molde average 2.19 scored (1.36x average) and are a steady defence at 1.58 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.3 for Lillestrom and 1.9 for Molde.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 63.2%), and both teams are likely to score (64.2%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-1, 1-2, 0-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Molde to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 51.2% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.