New England Patriots vs Las Vegas Raiders prediction: New England Patriots tipped to edge it (63.8%)
The New England Patriots enter as clear favourites against the Las Vegas Raiders despite sitting lower in the table.
The New England Patriots host the Las Vegas Raiders at Gillette Stadium on Sunday with the projection placing them ahead on current numbers. Their 2-2 record places them 20th in the league while the visitors sit seventh at 3-1. The gap in the standings is offset by home status and the probability spread.
Arrival at the fixture
The Patriots have collected two wins and three losses across their last five outings with the most recent result a victory. That sequence leaves them needing to build consistency after an even start to the season. The Raiders have taken three wins from their last five but arrive after a defeat that halted their stronger run.
Standings and recent results point in different directions. New England sit mid-table after four games while Las Vegas have climbed higher on the back of their extra win. The form lines show the home side carrying a slight deficit in wins over the shorter span yet the overall projection still tilts their way at home.
Availability and selection
Line-ups remain unconfirmed. Rhamondre Stevenson has been a limited participant in practice for the second straight day according to Yahoo Sports. Christian Gonzalez continues to be monitored for a shoulder issue that has already affected his availability.
The Raiders reported three upgrades and one downgrade on their Thursday injury list per Yahoo Sports. Yahoo Sports also listed several causes for concern ahead of the trip to New England. No major changes have been flagged beyond those updates and both sides will name their sides closer to kick-off.
Where the numbers place the outcome
Our numbers give the Patriots a 63.8 per cent chance of victory described as a clear favourite. The Raiders sit at 30.2 per cent while a draw carries a 6 per cent probability. Those figures produce a clear separation that exceeds a coin-flip range.
The projection places the largest weight on the home side converting their edge into the win column. A lower probability for the visitors means any result for Las Vegas would mark a departure from the base expectation. The narrow draw chance limits the scope for stalemate scenarios under the model.
The pick is New England Patriots to win. That call carries clear favourite status at 63.8 per cent. The home record supplies the main support. An away victory would represent the clearest departure from the projection while the low draw probability leaves little room for a stalemate.
Reporting referenced: ESPN, Yahoo Sports, Yahoo Sports, CBS Sports, Yahoo Sports, Yahoo Sports.
Team news
- Patriots place veteran WR Mack Hollins on IR with calf injury — The Patriots placed veteran wide receiver Mack Hollins on injured reserve Saturday with a calf injury. (ESPN, 2026-10-10)
- NFL Week 5 predictions: Upsets, fantasy sleepers, stat lines, TD scorers, more — Big performances for Brock Bowers, Travon Walker and Luther Burden III? The Giants pulling an upset? And an under-the-radar RB emerging this week in fantasy? (ESPN, 2026-10-10)
- NFL Week 5 preview: Picks, predictions, schedule, betting odds, fantasy tips — Bears vs. Packers? 49ers vs. Seahawks? There are 14 more games in Week 5, and we have picks, predictions and more for all of them. (ESPN, 2026-10-09)
- Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty (ankle/foot) questionable vs. Pats — Raiders coach Klint Kubiak said Friday that RB Ashton Jeanty was questionable to play against the Patriots as he deals with ankle and foot injuries. (ESPN, 2026-10-09)
- Patriots won't have starting CBs Christian Gonzalez, Carlton Davis — The Patriots will be without starting cornerbacks Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis this week. (ESPN, 2026-10-09)
- Inside the NFL's wild endings and why coaches need to adapt — Scoring too early and kicking the ball into the end zone can be costly, as the Cowboys learned. (ESPN, 2026-10-09)