Dijon FCO vs Metz prediction: Metz to win 1-2 as model gives 45.4% chance
Ligue 2 sees Dijon FCO face Metz at Stade Gaston-Gérard. The model makes Metz the favourite, assigning a slight 45.4% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Dijon FCO 27%, draw 27.6%, Metz 45.4%.
Dijon FCO have generated 1.49 goals per game (1.16x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.44 conceded per game. Metz average 1.51 scored (1.17x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.05 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.4 for Dijon FCO and 1.5 for Metz.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 55%), and both teams are likely to score (59.5%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-1, 1-2, 2-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Metz to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 45.4% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.