Atlético de San Luis vs Santos prediction: Atlético de San Luis to win 2-1 as model gives 43% chance
Atlético de San Luis hold a slight advantage at home against a Santos side that has won three straight but sits lower in the table.
Atlético de San Luis host Santos in Liga MX with both sides separated by just three points in the standings. The hosts sit 13th after ten matches while Santos occupy 16th, and the model gives the home side the edge despite a narrow projected margin.
Form and standings entering the fixture
Atlético de San Luis have collected 12 points from their opening ten games and trail by a goal difference of four. Santos sit on 10 points with a goal difference of minus five, leaving little room between the two clubs after identical numbers of matches played.
Santos arrive on the back of three consecutive wins, the most recent of which came in their last outing. Atlético de San Luis have taken three wins from their previous five matches and enter with a record of three wins, three draws and four defeats this season.
Selection picture and head-to-head record
Line-ups are unconfirmed. The two clubs have met three times in recent seasons, with Atlético de San Luis claiming all three victories and an average of four goals per game.
Both teams have scored in two of those three encounters. Santos have recorded three wins, one draw and one loss in their last five outings, while Atlético de San Luis show three wins and two losses across the same span.
Expected goals and market indicators
Our numbers project Atlético de San Luis at 1.8 expected goals against 1.2 for Santos. The most probable exact score is 2-1, with 2-0 the next most likely outcome.
Over 2.5 goals carries a 58.3% probability while both teams to score sits at 59.7%. The bookmaker line from ESPN implies probabilities of 52.4% for the home side, 27% for the draw and 20.6% for Santos, closely aligned with the model output of 52.1%, 25.8% and 22.1% respectively. Atlético de San Luis hold a 135-point Elo advantage once home advantage is included.
Verdict
Atlético de San Luis to win at 52.1% marginal favourite close to a coin flip. The home side’s expected goals edge and superior Elo rating supply the clearest separation. A Santos victory would most likely require them to overcome that rating deficit on the road. The goals markets point to a match that leans toward both sides finding the net.
Reporting referenced: Yahoo Sports, Yahoo Sports, Yahoo Sports.