Pachuca vs Necaxa prediction: Pachuca to win 2-0 as model gives 50.2% chance
Liga MX sees Pachuca face Necaxa at Estadio Hidalgo. The model makes Pachuca the favourite, assigning a slight 50.2% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Pachuca 50.2%, draw 27.9%, Necaxa 21.9%.
Pachuca have generated 1.43 goals per game (0.98x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.08 conceded per game. Necaxa average 1.21 scored (0.83x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.86 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 2.1 for Pachuca and 0.8 for Necaxa.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (49.3%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-0, with 2-0, 1-0, 1-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Pachuca to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 50.2% confidence. A 2-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.