Atlas vs Guadalajara prediction: Guadalajara to win 1-2 as model gives 46.7% chance
Liga MX sees Atlas face Guadalajara at Estadio Jalisco. The model makes Guadalajara the favourite, assigning a slight 46.7% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Atlas 27%, draw 26.3%, Guadalajara 46.7%.
Atlas have generated 1.33 goals per game (0.92x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.56 conceded per game. Guadalajara average 1.75 scored (1.20x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.12 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.2 for Atlas and 1.7 for Guadalajara.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both teams are likely to score (57.2%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-1, 1-2, 0-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Guadalajara to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 46.7% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.