FC Juárez vs Tijuana result: 1-1 as Tijuana were tipped
Prediction wrong. Final score: FC Juárez 1-1 Tijuana. We tipped Tijuana at 44% before kick-off, so the prediction was wrong.
Pre-match preview (as published)
Liga MX sees FC Juárez face Tijuana at Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez. The model makes Tijuana the favourite, assigning a narrow 44% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is FC Juárez 30.8%, draw 25.3%, Tijuana 44%.
FC Juárez have generated 1.09 goals per game (0.75x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 2.14 conceded per game. Tijuana average 1.46 scored (1.01x average) and are a steady defence at 1.38 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.2 for FC Juárez and 1.9 for Tijuana.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 59.8%), and both teams are likely to score (60%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-1, 1-2, 0-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Tijuana to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 44% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Transfer rumors, news: Liverpool eye move for Mexico's Mora — Could Mexico's teenage star Gilberto Mora end up moving to Merseyside? Transfer Talk has the latest. (ESPN, 2026-09-30)