Querétaro vs Atlante result: 2-0 as Querétaro were tipped
Prediction correct. Final score: Querétaro 2-0 Atlante. We tipped Querétaro at 39.3% before kick-off, so the prediction was correct.
Pre-match preview (as published)
Liga MX sees Querétaro face Atlante at Estadio Corregidora. The model makes Querétaro the favourite, assigning a narrow 39.3% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Querétaro 39.3%, draw 29.2%, Atlante 31.5%.
Querétaro have generated 1.28 goals per game (0.88x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.06 conceded per game. Atlante average 1.24 scored (0.85x average) and are a steady defence at 1.51 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.5 for Querétaro and 0.8 for Atlante.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 59.7%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 44.4%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-1, 1-0, 0-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Querétaro to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 39.3% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.