Jaguares de Córdoba vs Deportes Tolima prediction: Deportes Tolima to win 0-1 as model gives 65.5% chance
Primera A sees Jaguares de Córdoba face Deportes Tolima at Estadio Jaraguay (Municipal de Montería). The model makes Deportes Tolima the favourite, assigning a clear 65.5% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Jaguares de Córdoba 10.4%, draw 24.1%, Deportes Tolima 65.5%.
Jaguares de Córdoba have generated 1.06 goals per game (0.83x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 1.80 conceded per game. Deportes Tolima average 1.18 scored (0.93x average) and are a miserly defence at 0.94 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.9 for Jaguares de Córdoba and 1.5 for Deportes Tolima.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 57.5%), and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (46.9%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-1, with 1-1, 0-1, 0-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Deportes Tolima to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 65.5% confidence. A 0-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.