Union St.-Gilloise vs OH Leuven prediction: Union St.-Gilloise to win 2-0 as model gives 85% chance
Belgian Pro League sees Union St.-Gilloise face OH Leuven at Stade Joseph Marien. The model makes Union St.-Gilloise the favourite, assigning a strong 85% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Union St.-Gilloise 85%, draw 12.1%, OH Leuven 3%.
Union St.-Gilloise have generated 2.18 goals per game (1.54x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 0.63 conceded per game. OH Leuven average 0.92 scored (0.65x average) and are a steady defence at 1.61 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 2.8 for Union St.-Gilloise and 0.4 for OH Leuven.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 60.8%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 29.5%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-0, with 2-0, 3-0, 1-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Union St.-Gilloise to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 85% confidence. A 2-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Bafana's Relebohile Mofokeng is bossing Belgium, and proving Hugo Broos very wrong — Relebohile Mofokeng's flying start in Belgium for Royale Union St. Gilloise (RUSG) has put to rest former South Africa boss Hugo Broos' doubts over whether or not he would be ready for the Jupiler Pro League in the first six months. (ESPN, 2026-09-16)
- Brighton sign Canada striker Promise David on loan — Brighton & Hove Albion have signed Canada striker Promise David on a season-long loan from Union St.-Gilloise (ESPN, 2026-08-18)