Millwall vs Swansea City prediction: Millwall to win 2-1 as model gives 36.3% chance
Championship sees Millwall face Swansea City at The Den. The model makes Millwall the favourite, assigning a narrow 36.3% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Millwall 36.3%, draw 27.8%, Swansea City 35.9%.
Millwall have generated 1.56 goals per game (1.15x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.35 conceded per game. Swansea City average 1.50 scored (1.10x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.08 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.4 for Millwall and 1.3 for Swansea City.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both teams are likely to score (57%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 1-1, 2-1, 1-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Millwall to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 36.3% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Millwall vs. West Ham: English football's most notorious rivalry is back — The latest installment of one of English football's most notorious rivalries will take place this weekend. (ESPN, 2026-10-02)
- Millwall 2-2 West Ham: Amid craft beer and content creators, new-look Dockers' Derby engaging as ever — Almost 15 years on from the last one, the new-look Dockers' Derby is as engaging as ever. (ESPN, 2026-09-19)
- West Ham rescue draw at Millwall from two goals down — West Ham came from two goals down to snatch a 2-2 draw from a heated London derby at Millwall. (ESPN, 2026-09-19)
- Millwall's Filip Marschall accuses West Ham's Taty Castellanos of spitting — Millwall goalkeeper Filip Marschall has alleged that West Ham forward Taty Castellanos spat on him during a hard-fought 2-2 draw on Saturday. (ESPN, 2026-09-19)
- Millwall vs West Ham United: TV channel, how to watch in UK, kick-off time, live stream, team news — Everything you need to know ahead of the EFL Championship match between West Ham United and Millwall (ESPN, 2026-09-19)
- Significant increased police presence in place for fiery Millwall, West Ham clash — he London Metropolitan police have deployed 400 officers for Saturday's Championship clash between Millwall and West Ham. (ESPN, 2026-09-19)