Burnley vs Charlton Athletic prediction: Burnley to win 1-0 as model gives 66.7% chance
Championship sees Burnley face Charlton Athletic at Turf Moor. The model makes Burnley the favourite, assigning a clear 66.7% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Burnley 66.7%, draw 20%, Charlton Athletic 13.3%.
Burnley have generated 1.17 goals per game (0.87x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 1.94 conceded per game. Charlton Athletic average 0.91 scored (0.67x average) and are a steady defence at 1.28 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.2 for Burnley and 1.2 for Charlton Athletic.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 56.6%), and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (50.6%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-1, 0-0, 1-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Burnley to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 66.7% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Charlton's Nathan Jones slams offside goal: Linesman 'looked at me like I'd volleyed his cat' — Charlton manager Nathan Jones was left bemused by the decision to strike off Tyreece Campbell's goal in their 0-0 draw against QPR, saying that the linesman "looked at me like I'd volleyed his cat." (ESPN, 2026-09-10)
- Jamie Vardy joins Burnley on a season-long contract — Former Leicester forward Jamie Vardy has joined Burnley for the remainder of the season, the club have announced. (ESPN, 2026-09-07)
- West Ham miss late penalty, lose to Charlton in the Championship — Charlton maintained their perfect start to the Championship season with a 2-1 victory at West Ham in a pulsating London derby to pile more pressure on Hammers boss Nuno Espirito Santo. (ESPN, 2026-08-22)
- Wrexham goalkeeper Arthur Okonkwo joins Charlton on loan — Charlton have signed goalkeeper Arthur Okonkwo on a season-long loan from Wrexham. (ESPN, 2026-08-21)
- Charlton help police investigation after man found dead at stadium — Charlton say they are helping with police enquiries after a man was found dead at The Valley. (ESPN, 2026-08-19)
- Burnley 2-2 West Ham: Zian Flamming scores late double to deny Hammers in Championship clash — Zian Flemming struck twice late on as Burnley came back to deny West Ham in a 2-2 Championship draw between the freshly-relegated sides at Turf Moor. (ESPN, 2026-08-16)