Bradford City vs Stevenage prediction: Bradford City to win 1-0 as model gives 56.9% chance
League One sees Bradford City face Stevenage at Valley Parade. The model makes Bradford City the favourite, assigning a slight 56.9% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Bradford City 56.9%, draw 23.1%, Stevenage 20%.
Bradford City have generated 0.99 goals per game (0.74x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 0.85 conceded per game. Stevenage average 1.09 scored (0.82x average) and are a miserly defence at 0.97 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.8 for Bradford City and 0.6 for Stevenage.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 82.4%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 27.3%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 0-0, 1-0, 1-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Bradford City to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 56.9% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Jack Wilshere sent off as Luton fall to Stevenage defeat — Manager Jack Wilshere was sent off and had to endure Luton slipping to a 2-1 loss away to Stevenage from the dressing room. (ESPN, 2026-09-10)