Crewe Alexandra vs Rochdale prediction: Crewe Alexandra to win 1-0 as model gives 57.1% chance
League Two sees Crewe Alexandra face Rochdale at Mornflake Stadium. The model makes Crewe Alexandra the favourite, assigning a slight 57.1% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Crewe Alexandra 57.1%, draw 23.6%, Rochdale 19.3%.
Crewe Alexandra have generated 1.25 goals per game (0.99x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.00 conceded per game. Rochdale average 1.13 scored (0.90x average) and are a steady defence at 1.13 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.3 for Crewe Alexandra and 0.8 for Rochdale.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 66%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 41.1%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-0, 1-1, 0-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Crewe Alexandra to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 57.1% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.