Real Sociedad II vs Almería prediction: Almería to win 1-2 as model gives 56.1% chance
LaLiga 2 sees Real Sociedad II face Almería at Instalaciones de Zubieta. The model makes Almería the favourite, assigning a slight 56.1% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Real Sociedad II 18.9%, draw 25%, Almería 56.1%.
Real Sociedad II have generated 1.24 goals per game (0.93x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 1.72 conceded per game. Almería average 1.79 scored (1.34x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.08 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.1 for Real Sociedad II and 2.1 for Almería.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 61.9%), and both teams are likely to score (60.1%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-1, 1-2, 0-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Almería to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 56.1% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.