Eibar vs Mallorca prediction: Eibar to win 1-0 as model gives 38.5% chance
LaLiga 2 sees Eibar face Mallorca at Ipurua. The model makes Eibar the favourite, assigning a narrow 38.5% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Eibar 38.5%, draw 28%, Mallorca 33.5%.
Eibar have generated 1.71 goals per game (1.28x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.02 conceded per game. Mallorca average 1.22 scored (0.91x average) and are a miserly defence at 0.45 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.6 for Eibar and 0.8 for Mallorca.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 81.5%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 28.2%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 0-0, 0-1, 1-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Eibar to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 38.5% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.