Mallorca vs Las Palmas prediction: Mallorca to win 1-0 as model gives 68.2% chance
LaLiga 2 sees Mallorca face Las Palmas at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix. The model makes Mallorca the favourite, assigning a clear 68.2% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Mallorca 68.2%, draw 18.8%, Las Palmas 13%.
Mallorca have generated 0.95 goals per game (0.71x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 0.36 conceded per game. Las Palmas average 1.42 scored (1.07x average) and are a steady defence at 1.34 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.1 for Mallorca and 0.4 for Las Palmas.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 82.1%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 22%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 0-0, 1-0, 2-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Mallorca to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 68.2% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.