Burgos vs Granada prediction: Burgos to win 1-0 as model gives 38.3% chance
LaLiga 2 sees Burgos face Granada at Estadio Municipal de El Plantío. The model makes Burgos the favourite, assigning a narrow 38.3% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Burgos 38.3%, draw 30.9%, Granada 30.8%.
Burgos have generated 1.26 goals per game (0.95x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 0.88 conceded per game. Granada average 1.41 scored (1.06x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.54 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.6 for Burgos and 0.8 for Granada.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 55%), and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (47.1%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-1, 1-0, 2-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Burgos to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 38.3% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.