FC Andorra vs Castellón prediction: Castellón to win 1-2 as model gives 49.7% chance
LaLiga 2 sees FC Andorra face Castellón at Estadi de la FAF d'Encamp. The model makes Castellón the favourite, assigning a slight 49.7% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is FC Andorra 23.9%, draw 26.4%, Castellón 49.7%.
FC Andorra have generated 1.54 goals per game (1.16x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.50 conceded per game. Castellón average 1.78 scored (1.34x average) and are a miserly defence at 0.95 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.2 for FC Andorra and 1.8 for Castellón.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 58.4%), and both teams are likely to score (60.3%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-1, 1-2, 0-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Castellón to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 49.7% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.