St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC prediction: St. Pauli to win 2-1 as model gives 56.3% chance
2. Bundesliga sees St. Pauli face Karlsruher SC at Millerntor-Stadion. The model makes St. Pauli the favourite, assigning a slight 56.3% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is St. Pauli 56.3%, draw 24.3%, Karlsruher SC 19.4%.
St. Pauli have generated 1.32 goals per game (0.86x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.31 conceded per game. Karlsruher SC average 1.33 scored (0.87x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.96 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.9 for St. Pauli and 1 for Karlsruher SC.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 55.8%), and both teams are likely to score (55.6%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 1-1, 2-1, 2-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: St. Pauli to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 56.3% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.