Erzurum BB vs Eyupspor prediction: Erzurum BB to win 1-0 as model gives 41.1% chance
Super Lig sees Erzurum BB face Eyupspor at Erzurum Kazim Karabekir. The model makes Erzurum BB the favourite, assigning a narrow 41.1% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Erzurum BB 41.1%, draw 27.5%, Eyupspor 31.5%.
Erzurum BB have generated 0.43 goals per game (0.30x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.45 conceded per game. Eyupspor average 0.80 scored (0.56x average) and are a leaky defence at 2.15 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.7 for Erzurum BB and 0.7 for Eyupspor.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 81.8%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 28.4%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 0-0, 0-1, 1-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Erzurum BB to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 41.1% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.