Fenerbahce vs Alanyaspor prediction: Fenerbahce to win 2-0 as model gives 85.3% chance
Super Lig sees Fenerbahce face Alanyaspor at Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium. The model makes Fenerbahce the favourite, assigning a strong 85.3% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Fenerbahce 85.3%, draw 11.3%, Alanyaspor 3.4%.
Fenerbahce have generated 2.54 goals per game (1.79x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.03 conceded per game. Alanyaspor average 1.22 scored (0.86x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.08 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 2.2 for Fenerbahce and 0.8 for Alanyaspor.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 57.1%), and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (49.8%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-0, with 2-0, 1-0, 1-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Fenerbahce to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 85.3% confidence. A 2-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Fenerbahce coach returns to work after resignation confusion — Fenerbahce coach Ismail Kartal returned to his duties on Saturday, contradicting media reports from the day before suggesting his resignation was final. (ESPN, 2026-09-12)
- Fenerbahçe coach Kartal misses training despite club blocking resignation — Fenerbahçe coach Ismail Kartal announced his shock resignation after the 1-1 draw against Roma, but club president Aziz Yildirim said the coach remains in his position. (ESPN, 2026-09-11)
- Fenerbahce's Mattéo Guendouzi banned for two Champions League matches after Lyon clashes — Mattéo Guendouzi was banned by UEFA from Fenerbahce's first two Champions League games for provocations and insults in a heated playoff win at Lyon in his native France. (ESPN, 2026-09-05)
- Fenerbahce: Mason Greenwood, Matteo Guendouzi subject of UEFA investigation — Mason Greenwood and Matteo Guendouzi are the subject of a disciplinary investigation by UEFA, Fenerbahce have confirmed. (ESPN, 2026-09-03)
- Barcelona confirm signing of Croatia goalkeeper Dominik Livakovic — Barcelona have confirmed the signing of Croatia goalkeeper Dominik Livakovic from Turkish club Fenerbahçe (ESPN, 2026-08-27)
- Barcelona set to sign Fenerbahçe goalkeeper Dominik Livaković - source — Barcelona are set to seal the signing of goalkeeper Dominik Livaković from Fenerbahçe, a source confirmed to ESPN. (ESPN, 2026-08-26)