Besiktas vs Kocaelispor prediction: Besiktas to win 1-0 as model gives 88% chance
Super Lig sees Besiktas face Kocaelispor at Vodafone Park. The model makes Besiktas the favourite, assigning a strong 88% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Besiktas 88%, draw 9%, Kocaelispor 3%.
Besiktas have generated 1.97 goals per game (1.37x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.16 conceded per game. Kocaelispor average 0.90 scored (0.62x average) and are a miserly defence at 0.91 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.4 for Besiktas and 0.7 for Kocaelispor.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 66.1%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 37.6%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-0, 0-0, 1-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Besiktas to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 88% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Besiktas lament Turkish referee, VAR in scathing statement after Leandro Trossard slapped in face — Besiktas have hit back at a "disgraceful" refereeing performance after Leandro Trossard was slapped in the face with no punishment dished out. (ESPN, 2026-08-24)