Gaziantep FK vs Çorum FK prediction: Gaziantep FK to win 2-1 as model gives 38.5% chance
Super Lig sees Gaziantep FK face Çorum FK at Gaziantep Stadium. The model makes Gaziantep FK the favourite, assigning a narrow 38.5% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Gaziantep FK 38.5%, draw 26.8%, Çorum FK 34.7%.
Gaziantep FK have generated 1.17 goals per game (0.82x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.49 conceded per game. Çorum FK average 2.21 scored (1.54x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.98 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.8 for Gaziantep FK and 2.1 for Çorum FK.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 74.2%), and both teams are likely to score (73.9%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 1-1, 1-2, 2-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Gaziantep FK to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 38.5% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.