Macarthur FC vs Perth Glory prediction: Macarthur FC to win 2-1 as model gives 55.6% chance
A-League Men sees Macarthur FC face Perth Glory at Campbelltown Sports Stadium. The model makes Macarthur FC the favourite, assigning a slight 55.6% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Macarthur FC 55.6%, draw 23.8%, Perth Glory 20.6%.
Macarthur FC have generated 1.58 goals per game (1.09x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 1.84 conceded per game. Perth Glory average 1.27 scored (0.88x average) and are a steady defence at 1.50 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.8 for Macarthur FC and 1.5 for Perth Glory.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 63.8%), and both teams are likely to score (65.6%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 1-1, 2-1, 1-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Macarthur FC to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 55.6% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- A-League Men 2026-27 season preview: Key players, storylines — Who rises, who falls and who takes the silverware? ESPN breaks down every A-League Men team ahead of a wide-open 2026-27 season. (ESPN, 2026-10-12)
- A-League kit rankings: Which club has 2026-27's best jerseys? — From throwback classics to bold new designs, ESPN ranks every A-League club's kit for 2026-27. Which set of jerseys takes the crown? (ESPN, 2026-10-12)
- Perth Glory captain Adam Taggart set to make bombshell exit — Hometown hero Adam Taggart is set to leave Perth Glory just three months after re-signing, but the A-League club insist they haven't pushed him out the door. (ESPN, 2026-08-28)
- Former Socceroo Sasa Ognenovski takes charge at A-League's Bulls — Former Socceroos defender Sasa Ognenovski has been appointed Macarthur FC head coach for the next two A-League Men seasons. (ESPN, 2026-08-24)
- Mile Sterjovski leaves Macarthur on the eve of A-League season — A-League club Macarthur FC are on the hunt for a head coach less than two months out from the new season after agreeing to part ways with Mile Sterjovski. (ESPN, 2026-08-18)