Olympiacos vs Panathinaikos prediction: Olympiacos to win 1-0 as model gives 45.7% chance
Greek Super League sees Olympiacos face Panathinaikos at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium. The model makes Olympiacos the favourite, assigning a slight 45.7% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Olympiacos 45.7%, draw 26.8%, Panathinaikos 27.6%.
Olympiacos have generated 1.17 goals per game (0.92x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 0.52 conceded per game. Panathinaikos average 1.77 scored (1.40x average) and are a miserly defence at 0.79 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.8 for Olympiacos and 0.7 for Panathinaikos.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 81.6%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 28.3%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 0-0, 1-0, 1-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Olympiacos to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 45.7% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Sporting KC signs Brazilian André Luiz in club-record deal — Sporting Kansas City has signed Brazilian forward André Luiz as a designated player to a five-year contract for what the Major League Soccer club has called a club-record transfer fee from Greek club Olympiacos. (ESPN, 2026-08-18)