Iraklis vs Levadiakos prediction: Iraklis to win 1-0 as model gives 43.4% chance
Greek Super League sees Iraklis face Levadiakos at Kaftanzoglio Ethniko Stadio. The model makes Iraklis the favourite, assigning a narrow 43.4% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Iraklis 43.4%, draw 27.4%, Levadiakos 29.2%.
Iraklis have generated 0.80 goals per game (0.63x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.13 conceded per game. Levadiakos average 1.12 scored (0.89x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.61 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.1 for Iraklis and 0.9 for Levadiakos.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 66.5%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 42%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-1, 0-0, 1-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Iraklis to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 43.4% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.