Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder tipped to edge it (67.8%)
The Thunder sit at the foot of the table yet remain the clear favourite to beat the Pacers on home soil.
Oklahoma City Thunder have lost their opening two games and sit 22nd in the standings, while Indiana Pacers have won their only fixture so far and occupy seventh place. The two sides meet at Paycom Center with the hosts carrying a recent run of LL and the visitors arriving on the back of a W. Season records show Thunder at 0-2 and Pacers at 1-0, yet the probabilities place the weight of expectation on the home side.
Line-ups remain unconfirmed for the fixture. Recent reporting notes that Tyrese Haliburton has been dealing with an ankle issue that kept him out of a game against the Hawks, though he had returned for limited minutes in an earlier outing.
How both teams reached this point
Thunder have started the season with consecutive defeats that leave them near the bottom of the overall table. Their two losses have come in quick succession and stand in contrast to the single win recorded by the Pacers so far.
Pacers sit higher after their opening victory and carry the only positive result between the two sides entering this match. The difference in current position is marked, yet the model still assigns the stronger chance to the home team.
Reporting on selection and availability
No confirmed starting line-ups have been released ahead of the game. Sources indicate Haliburton faces ongoing management of an ankle problem that has already forced him to miss at least one scheduled appearance.
Additional notes from the week focus on Haliburton’s comments about past incidents with Damian Lillard rather than fresh injury details for this particular contest. The absence of any further confirmed absences leaves the bench and rotation open to last-minute adjustments.
Where the numbers place the outcome
The projection gives Oklahoma City Thunder a 67.8% chance of victory and Indiana Pacers a 32.2% chance. That margin makes the home side the clear favourite on the basis of the full data set rather than recent results alone.
No separate totals line is supplied, so the model offers no additional insight on expected scoring volume. The home advantage embedded in the probability appears to outweigh the visitors’ superior league position at this early stage.
Oklahoma City Thunder to win at 67.8% (clear favourite) confidence. The largest factor is the probability weight attached to the home side despite their 0-2 record. An away win at the quoted 32.2% would overturn that assessment. The model supplies no separate view on totals.
Reporting referenced: ESPN, Yahoo Sports, CBS Sports, Yahoo Sports, Yahoo Sports, ESPN.
Team news
- Tyrese Haliburton hopes to mend fences with Damian Lillard — Tyrese Haliburton said he wishes his relationship with Damian Lillard could be repaired after the Pacers star stole Lillard's Dame Time celebration during the 2023 in-season tournament. (ESPN, 2026-10-09)
- What does your NBA team need? The biggest hole on all 30 rosters — Every NBA team is missing something, even the leading title contenders. (ESPN, 2026-10-08)
- Tyrese Haliburton scores 7 in 1st game in more than 16 months — Pacers star Tyrese Haliburton scored seven points during his 16 minutes of action against the Wolves on Wednesday. It was his first game in more than 16 months, as Haliburton was recovering from a torn Achilles. (ESPN, 2026-10-08)
- Basketball Power Index: NBA projections, playoff chances for 2026-27 season — ESPN's Basketball Power Index projections for the 2026-27 NBA season are out, including a ranking of all 30 teams. (ESPN, 2026-10-07)
- Haliburton buys Iowa St. students tickets for Pacers game — Tyrese Haliburton purchased tickets for the student section at his alma mater Iowa State for the Pacers' first preseason game Wednesday. (ESPN, 2026-10-07)
- NBA preview 2026-27: What Bobby Marks is watching at 30 training camps — As training camps get underway across the league, Bobby Marks examines roster, contract and fit questions for all 30 teams. (ESPN, 2026-09-30)