Toronto Raptors vs New York Knicks prediction: Toronto Raptors tipped to edge it (55.9%)
Toronto Raptors hold a narrow lead in the probabilities when they host New York Knicks at Scotiabank Arena.
The early season standings already separate these two sides from the rest of the Eastern Conference. Toronto sits 27th after one game while New York is 28th after two, and both clubs open their home-and-away series with limited recent success.
Early results shape the series start
Toronto arrive with a single defeat that leaves them at 0-1. Their most recent outing ended in a loss, a result that matches the pattern of slow starts for a roster still integrating new pieces. New York meanwhile trail at 0-2 following consecutive defeats, the second of which extended a run without a win this season.
The two teams have met once already in the young campaign, yet the quick turnaround means fresh adjustments will matter more than any prior result. Toronto’s position one place above New York in the table offers a modest buffer, though the gap remains small enough that one positive outcome could reorder the early hierarchy.
Leonard absence confirmed, Knicks delay talks
Kawhi Leonard will not feature for Toronto because of reconditioning work, according to Yahoo Sports. The forward’s limited participation in training camp has already ruled him out of recent exhibition matches, and that same cautious approach continues into the regular season.
New York have paused extension discussions with Karl-Anthony Towns and Josh Hart until later in the campaign, ESPN and Yahoo Sports both report. The club stated it will focus solely on season preparation, a stance that removes one potential distraction but leaves the players’ future financial positions unresolved for now.
Probabilities point to narrow home margin
Our numbers give Toronto a 55.9% chance of victory and New York 44.1%. The projection treats the contest as one the hosts should shade rather than dominate, consistent with the slight gap in current standings and the modest difference in recent form.
Bookmaker odds align closely with those percentages, offering little value on either side once the margin is accounted for. Without detailed scoring projections available, the model’s emphasis stays on the win probabilities themselves, which already incorporate the teams’ respective records and the home venue.
The pick is Toronto Raptors to win. That outcome carries a 55.9% probability and is described as a slight favourite. The main weight behind the selection is Toronto’s marginally better early record combined with home status. The clearest risk is that New York’s extra game of recent experience produces a sharper response on the road. The probabilities leave little room for either team to pull clear, so a low-scoring contest remains the likeliest shape even if the final margin stays small.
Reporting referenced: Yahoo Sports, Yahoo Sports, Yahoo Sports, Yahoo Sports, Yahoo Sports, ESPN.
Team news
- Knicks' Towns opens up about grief for World Mental Health Day — Karl-Anthony Towns shared his emotional journey following the death of his mother six years ago to mark World Mental Health Day on Saturday. (ESPN, 2026-10-10)
- 2026 NBA free agency: Grades for offseason signings, extensions — We're grading the biggest free agent signings and extensions, including Jalen Duren's new five-year deal. (ESPN, 2026-10-10)
- Knicks tabling Karl-Anthony Towns, Josh Hart contract talks — The Knicks have said they are tabling contract extension talks with Karl-Anthony Towns and Josh Hart "until later in the season and will remain solely focused on preparing for the start of the season." (ESPN, 2026-10-09)
- What does your NBA team need? The biggest hole on all 30 rosters — Every NBA team is missing something, even the leading title contenders. (ESPN, 2026-10-08)
- Basketball Power Index: NBA projections, playoff chances for 2026-27 season — ESPN's Basketball Power Index projections for the 2026-27 NBA season are out, including a ranking of all 30 teams. (ESPN, 2026-10-07)
- Both sides of the contract divide between Karl-Anthony Towns and the Knicks — Karl-Anthony Towns and the Knicks are far apart on extension talks. ESPN insiders break down each side, plus project where this saga is headed. (ESPN, 2026-10-06)