St Johnstone vs Dundee United prediction: St Johnstone to win 1-0 as model gives 38.4% chance
Scottish Premiership sees St Johnstone face Dundee United at McDiarmid Park. The model makes St Johnstone the favourite, assigning a narrow 38.4% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is St Johnstone 38.4%, draw 27.8%, Dundee United 33.8%.
St Johnstone have generated 1.17 goals per game (0.85x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.20 conceded per game. Dundee United average 1.25 scored (0.91x average) and are a steady defence at 1.43 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.4 for St Johnstone and 1 for Dundee United.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 58.2%), and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (48.2%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-1, 1-0, 0-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: St Johnstone to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 38.4% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
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Head-to-head & form · More predictions · Scottish Premiership