Hibernian vs Falkirk prediction: Hibernian to win 1-0 as model gives 67.9% chance
Scottish Premiership sees Hibernian face Falkirk at Easter Road. The model makes Hibernian the favourite, assigning a clear 67.9% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Hibernian 67.9%, draw 19.7%, Falkirk 12.4%.
Hibernian have generated 1.23 goals per game (0.90x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.31 conceded per game. Falkirk average 1.16 scored (0.85x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.65 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.7 for Hibernian and 1 for Falkirk.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (52.5%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-1, 1-0, 2-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Hibernian to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 67.9% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
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Head-to-head & form · More predictions · Scottish Premiership