Motherwell vs Celtic prediction: Celtic to win 1-2 as model gives 66.2% chance
Scottish Premiership sees Motherwell face Celtic at Fir Park. The model makes Celtic the favourite, assigning a clear 66.2% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Motherwell 10.7%, draw 23.1%, Celtic 66.2%.
Motherwell have generated 1.41 goals per game (1.03x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.34 conceded per game. Celtic average 2.04 scored (1.49x average) and are a miserly defence at 0.91 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1 for Motherwell and 1.8 for Celtic.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both teams are likely to score (55.4%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-1, 1-2, 0-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Celtic to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 66.2% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
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