Aberdeen vs St Johnstone prediction: Aberdeen to win 1-0 as model gives 46.2% chance
Scottish Premiership sees Aberdeen face St Johnstone at Pittodrie Stadium. The model makes Aberdeen the favourite, assigning a slight 46.2% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Aberdeen 46.2%, draw 26.4%, St Johnstone 27.4%.
Aberdeen have generated 1.08 goals per game (0.78x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.37 conceded per game. St Johnstone average 1.20 scored (0.87x average) and are a steady defence at 1.40 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.2 for Aberdeen and 1.1 for St Johnstone.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 59.4%), and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (48.2%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-1, 0-0, 1-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Aberdeen to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 46.2% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
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