Levante vs Sevilla prediction: Sevilla to win 1-2 as model gives 40.6% chance
Sevilla carry a marginal favourite status into the trip despite Levante's home advantage and recent head-to-head control.
Levante sit 17th after six matches while Sevilla occupy fifth place after seven. The home side have collected five points from a record of one win, two draws and three defeats, whereas Sevilla have 13 points from four wins, one draw and two defeats. Levante's last five games show one win, two draws and two losses with the most recent result a defeat. Sevilla's sequence in their last five reads two wins, one draw and two losses, also ending in a defeat.
The sides last met twice with Levante taking both victories and an average of 2.5 goals per game, though neither contest featured goals from both teams.
Levante seek to arrest a slow start
Levante have taken just five points from their opening six fixtures and sit 17th in the table. Their season record stands at one win, two draws and three losses. The most recent five matches have brought only one victory, leaving them with a negative goal difference of four.
Line-ups remain unconfirmed. The home side will need to improve their results if they are to climb the table in the coming weeks.
Sevilla aim to build on mid-table progress
Sevilla have started more steadily and hold fifth position with 13 points from seven matches. Their season record is four wins, one draw and two losses. The last five outings have produced two victories, yet the sequence also includes two defeats.
Line-ups remain unconfirmed. The visitors will look to extend their points tally against a Levante side that has struggled for consistency.
Numbers point to a tight contest with slight lean to Sevilla
Our projection gives Sevilla a 40.6 per cent chance of victory, Levante 30.1 per cent and the draw 29.3 per cent. Expected goals stand at 1.5 for the home side and 1.3 for Sevilla, with the most likely exact score 1-2. The probabilities from bookmakers are close at 34.9 per cent, 28.6 per cent and 36.5 per cent respectively. Elo ratings show Levante at 1475 and Sevilla at 1470, though home advantage shifts the edge by 69 points in Levante's favour. Both teams to score is projected at 58.6 per cent while over 2.5 goals sits at 53.8 per cent.
The two sides have produced low-scoring affairs in their recent meetings, yet the current numbers suggest a modest tilt toward an away win.
Sevilla to win at 40.6 per cent is the pick, reflecting a marginal favourite status close to a coin flip. The visitors' stronger points return this season carries the most weight. A Levante victory would most obviously derail the selection. The goals markets add that both teams to score looks the likelier outcome at 58.6 per cent.
Reporting referenced: Yahoo Sports.
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