Carrarese vs Modena prediction: Modena to win 0-1 as model gives 61.9% chance
Serie B sees Carrarese face Modena at Dei Marmi. The model makes Modena the favourite, assigning a clear 61.9% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Carrarese 11.8%, draw 26.3%, Modena 61.9%.
Carrarese have generated 0.98 goals per game (0.75x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.19 conceded per game. Modena average 1.43 scored (1.10x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.07 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.9 for Carrarese and 1.2 for Modena.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 65.5%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 42.7%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-1, with 1-1, 0-0, 0-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Modena to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 61.9% confidence. A 0-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.