Benevento vs Vicenza prediction: Benevento to win 2-0 as model gives 44% chance
Serie B sees Benevento face Vicenza at Stadio Ciro Vigorito. The model makes Benevento the favourite, assigning a narrow 44% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Benevento 44%, draw 30.7%, Vicenza 25.3%.
Benevento have generated 1.37 goals per game (1.05x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 0.77 conceded per game. Vicenza average 1.10 scored (0.84x average) and are a leaky defence at 2.19 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 2.6 for Benevento and 0.6 for Vicenza.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 61.1%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 41.6%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-0, with 2-0, 3-0, 1-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Benevento to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 44% confidence. A 2-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.