Ascoli vs Empoli prediction: Ascoli to win 1-0 as model gives 54% chance
Serie B sees Ascoli face Empoli at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca. The model makes Ascoli the favourite, assigning a slight 54% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Ascoli 54%, draw 26.2%, Empoli 19.8%.
Ascoli have generated 1.13 goals per game (0.87x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 0.64 conceded per game. Empoli average 1.13 scored (0.86x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.57 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.5 for Ascoli and 0.5 for Empoli.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 67.1%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 31.9%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-0, 2-0, 0-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Ascoli to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 54% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.