Modena vs Hellas Verona prediction: Modena to win 2-1 as model gives 51.2% chance
Serie B sees Modena face Hellas Verona at Alberto Braglia. The model makes Modena the favourite, assigning a slight 51.2% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Modena 51.2%, draw 25.3%, Hellas Verona 23.5%.
Modena have generated 1.30 goals per game (1.00x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 0.99 conceded per game. Hellas Verona average 2.02 scored (1.55x average) and are a steady defence at 1.40 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.6 for Modena and 1.4 for Hellas Verona.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 56.4%), and both teams are likely to score (60.5%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 1-1, 2-1, 1-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Modena to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 51.2% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.