New England Revolution vs Seattle Sounders FC prediction: New England Revolution to win 2-1 as model gives 46.5% chance
New England sit second in the MLS table and host a Seattle side on a three-match winning run, with the numbers giving the hosts a marginal edge.
New England Revolution host Seattle Sounders FC at Gillette Stadium with both sides still chasing strong playoff positioning. The hosts occupy second place after 27 matches and have collected 46 points from a 14-4-9 record, while Seattle sit seventh with 38 points from 10 wins, eight draws and nine defeats.
New England arrive after three wins and two losses in their last five outings, the most recent of which ended in defeat. Seattle have remained unbeaten in their last five, recording three wins and two draws, and have extended a winning sequence to three matches.
Team news and selection outlook
Line-ups remain unconfirmed for both clubs ahead of the fixture. No specific injury or availability updates have emerged from MLS reporting in the build-up.
The absence of confirmed team news leaves both coaches with standard options across the squad. Neither side has reported any unusual absences that would alter the expected shape.
How the probabilities shape the contest
Our numbers give New England Revolution a 46.5 percent chance of victory, making them the marginal favourite and close to a coin flip. Seattle Sounders FC are projected at 27.3 percent while the draw sits at 26.2 percent.
Expected goals stand at 1.6 for the hosts and 1.1 for the visitors, pointing to a modest home advantage that aligns with the 63-point Elo edge once home advantage is included. The most likely exact scorelines are 2-1 and 1-0. Over 2.5 goals is assessed at 51.8 percent and both teams to score at 55.5 percent.
Market comparison and verdict
Bookmaker averages place New England at 49.3 percent, slightly higher than the model, with the draw at 24.4 percent and Seattle at 26.3 percent.
New England Revolution to win is the pick at 46.5 percent . The home side's higher league position and the 1.6 to 1.1 expected-goals split carry the most weight in the projection. The result swings if Seattle extend their three-match winning run and keep the game tight. The goals markets add a modest lean toward both teams finding the net.
Reporting referenced: Yahoo Sports, Yahoo Sports, Yahoo Sports, Yahoo Sports, Yahoo Sports, Yahoo Sports.
Team news
- MLS Power Rankings: No Cavan? No problem for surging Philadelphia — Philadelphia lost three star youngsters to international duty, yet the Union continued their march toward the top of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-09-28)
- MLS Power Rankings: Union skyrocket as unbeaten streak reaches 11 games — Can anyone stop the Philadelphia Union? Their latest win powered them up the charts in this week's edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-09-21)
- MLS Power Rankings: Chicago's slide continues as Nashville cements top spot — The Chicago Fire haven't tasted victory in more than three weeks, precipitating a slide down this week's edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-09-14)
- MLS Power Rankings: Griezmann catapults Orlando into the playoff picture — With eight goal contributions in eight games since joining the Lions, Antoine Griezmann has turned around Orlando's season. That and more in ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-09-07)
- MLS Power Rankings: Nashville continue top, Miami bounce back — Lionel Messi's four goals put Miami back on track, while Nashville continue to dominate. All that and more in this week's edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-08-31)
- Who are the USMNT's brightest U21 prospects bound for Europe? — Zavier Gozo has already left MLS for the Premier League at age 19, so who are the next under-21 American prospects destined for a move to Europe? (ESPN, 2026-08-26)