Red Bull New York vs San Diego FC prediction: San Diego FC to win 1-2 as model gives 40.9% chance
MLS sees Red Bull New York face San Diego FC at Sports Illustrated Stadium. The model makes San Diego FC the favourite, assigning a narrow 40.9% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Red Bull New York 32.5%, draw 26.6%, San Diego FC 40.9%.
Red Bull New York have generated 1.08 goals per game (0.67x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.70 conceded per game. San Diego FC average 1.69 scored (1.05x average) and are a steady defence at 1.74 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.3 for Red Bull New York and 1.6 for San Diego FC.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 56%), and both teams are likely to score (59.9%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-1, 1-2, 2-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: San Diego FC to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 40.9% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- St. Louis up to 2nd place with unbeaten run now at 17 games — Simon Becher and Tomas Ostrak each scored late in the second half as St. Louis City SC beat the New York Red Bulls 3-0 on Wednesday night. (ESPN, 2026-10-01)
- MLS Power Rankings: No Cavan? No problem for surging Philadelphia — Philadelphia lost three star youngsters to international duty, yet the Union continued their march toward the top of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-09-28)
- MLS Power Rankings: Union skyrocket as unbeaten streak reaches 11 games — Can anyone stop the Philadelphia Union? Their latest win powered them up the charts in this week's edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-09-21)
- Dreyer outduels Messi as San Diego hands Miami 4th straight draw — Lionel Messi scored his 101st goal for Inter Miami CF, but Anders Dreyer scored twice for San Diego FC, as the teams played to a 2-2 draw on Sunday night. (ESPN, 2026-09-21)
- Red Bulls teen Hall undecided on USMNT future despite 1st call-up — New York Red Bulls teenage forward Julian Hall said the decision on his international allegiance was still "not solidified," despite earning a first call-up to the U.S. men's national team on Thursday. (ESPN, 2026-09-17)
- MLS Power Rankings: Chicago's slide continues as Nashville cements top spot — The Chicago Fire haven't tasted victory in more than three weeks, precipitating a slide down this week's edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-09-14)